Critical Threats to Black Economic Security
From the Desk of Chris Baldwin, Licensed Financial Professional
Beverly Hills, CA
December 16, 2025
Executive Summary
Black communities face converging threats to economic security in 2026. The expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies, proposed cuts to vital safety net programs, and the potential exclusion from emerging industrial opportunities present a multi-front assault on Black economic stability. This report synthesizes research from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies with current data to highlight the urgent need for policy action that protects existing supports while ensuring equitable access to future prosperity.
🚨URGENT: ACA Subsidy Expiration Crisis Looming for Black Families
The Immediate Threat
Enhanced Affordable Care Act premium subsidies expire on January 1, 2026—just weeks away. For Black communities, already facing disproportionate health challenges and economic barriers, this expiration threatens to unravel years of progress in expanding healthcare access.
By the Numbers: Impact on Black Communities
Premium Increases:
- Average marketplace enrollees will see premiums more than double, from $888 to $1,904 annually—a 114% increase
- A 60-year-old couple earning $85,000 could pay $22,600 more per year for coverage
- Low-income families (150-200% of poverty level) face 400% premium increases, from $180 to $905 annually
The Return of the "Subsidy Cliff":
- Middle-income earners above 400% of the federal poverty level will lose ALL financial assistance
- A small income increase could trigger the loss of thousands of dollars in subsidies
- Older Black adults, who face higher premiums, will be hit hardest
Coverage Loss:
- Up to 4 million Americans projected to lose health insurance in 2026
- The Congressional Budget Office projects an average of 3.8 million people without coverage annually from 2026-2034
- Communities of color, including Black Americans, will experience disproportionately higher uninsurance rates
Why Black Communities Are Most Vulnerable
Black Americans have been among the primary beneficiaries of enhanced ACA subsidies. Growth in marketplace enrollment has been concentrated among Black and Latino individuals, people with low incomes, and those in states without Medicaid expansion. The expiration threatens to:
- Widen the Health Disparity Gap: Black Americans already face higher rates of chronic conditions like diabetes, hypertension, and heart disease. Loss of coverage will delay preventive care and treatment, worsening health outcomes.
- Increase Financial Instability: Many Black families, already navigating systemic economic barriers, will face impossible choices between healthcare premiums and other basic needs like food, housing, and transportation.
- Overwhelm Safety-Net Providers: The increase in uninsured individuals will place crushing financial burdens on community clinics and hospitals serving Black neighborhoods, potentially forcing service reductions or closures.
- Exacerbate Coverage Gaps in Non-Expansion States: Black Americans in states that haven't expanded Medicaid will fall into a coverage gap—earning too much for Medicaid but unable to afford unsubsidized premiums.
The Congressional Failure
Despite urgent advocacy from healthcare providers, civil rights organizations, and affected communities, the Senate rejected proposals to extend enhanced subsidies in December 2025. The political cost of inaction: an estimated $60 billion to extend for two years, or $350 billion for ten years. Yet the human cost—measured in postponed cancer screenings, untreated chronic diseases, and preventable deaths—is incalculable.
Social Safety Net Under Attack: The Fight to Protect Black Households
Beyond healthcare, the broader social safety net faces threats through budget reconciliation cuts. Research from the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies reveals the stakes.
Current Disparities Demand Protection, Not Cuts
Poverty Reality:
- Black poverty rate: 17.1% (more than double the white rate of 8.1%)
- These disparities stem from centuries of systemic discrimination in labor, housing, and education
Critical Safety Net Programs:
SNAP (Food Assistance):
- 25% of Black households receive SNAP benefits (vs. less than 10% of white households)
- In 2014, SNAP lifted 2 million Black Americans out of poverty
- Proposed cuts would increase food insecurity and childhood hunger in Black communities
Medicaid:
- 61% of Black children and 31% of non-elderly Black adults rely on Medicaid/CHIP
- This is the primary healthcare safety net for Black families
- Work requirement proposals would create bureaucratic barriers causing coverage loss even for working families
TANF (Cash Assistance):
- Black children are 38% of TANF recipients despite being only 14% of the child population
- The program's value has already eroded; further cuts would devastate the nation's poorest families
The False Narrative of "Dependency"
These programs are not creating dependency—they are compensating for systemic inequities and providing foundations for economic mobility. Most non-disabled adults on these programs who can work, do work. Work requirements often serve only to create red tape that causes eligible people to lose vital assistance.
The Opportunity: Ensuring Black Workers Benefit from Industrial Policy
While defending the safety net is essential, Black communities must also secure access to the economic opportunities created by recent federal investments.
$1 Trillion Investment at Risk of Bypassing Black America
The CHIPS Act, Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, and Inflation Reduction Act represent historic investments:
- The IRA alone will create over 9 million jobs in the next decade
- The CHIPS Act invests $52 billion in semiconductor manufacturing
- Without intentional equity measures, these jobs will bypass Black workers
Current Underrepresentation in Growth Sectors
Black workers make up 12.1% of the U.S. workforce but are underrepresented in key growth industries:
- 10.4% of manufacturing workforce
- 9.9% of construction workforce
- Even smaller shares in semiconductor manufacturing and renewable energy
The Path Forward: Race-Conscious Implementation
A "colorblind" approach to these investments will replicate historical exclusion. Equity requires:
- Embed Equity in Federal Requirements: Mandate Community Benefit Agreements and demographic data collection for all funding recipients
- Targeted Workforce Development: Scale up apprenticeship and training programs in partnership with community colleges and organizations serving Black workers, with wraparound services like childcare and transportation
- Support Black-Owned Businesses: Set and enforce ambitious contracting goals with simplified procurement processes and technical assistance
- Strengthen Enforcement: Bolster EEOC and OFCCP capacity to monitor hiring practices and enforce anti-discrimination laws
- Data-Driven Accountability: Mandate public reporting of who receives jobs, training, and contracts
The Convergence: Two-Front Fight for Economic Justice
These challenges represent two sides of economic security:
The Floor (Protection):
Safety net programs and ACA subsidies provide the fundamental security that prevents families from falling into destitution. Without this floor, families lack the stability to pursue opportunity.
The Ladder (Prosperity):
Industrial policy investments offer pathways to high-quality employment and generational wealth. Without accessible ladders, communities remain trapped in cycles of poverty.
Both are under threat. Both require urgent action.
Call to Action: What You Can Do
The fight for Black economic justice requires sustained engagement at every level:
Immediate Actions:
- Contact Your Representatives: Demand emergency extension of ACA enhanced subsidies before January 1, 2026. Call, email, and visit district offices.
- Oppose Safety Net Cuts: Tell Congress to reject any budget reconciliation proposals that cut SNAP, Medicaid, or TANF.
- Demand Equity in Implementation: Insist that federal agencies implement the CHIPS Act, IRA, and infrastructure investments with explicit equity requirements.
- Support Community Organizations: Donate to and volunteer with groups providing healthcare enrollment assistance, workforce training, and advocacy.
- Share Your Story: If ACA subsidy loss affects you or your family, share your story with media and elected officials. Personal narratives drive policy change.
- Learn and Deploy Artificial Intelligence Tools: AI technology, robotics and spatial computing are driving the technology sector - which may displace millions of workers in the years to come. Never stop learning.
Ongoing Engagement:
- Stay Informed: Subscribe to updates from civil rights organizations, policy think tanks, and community advocates
- Participate in Public Comment Periods: When federal agencies issue rules for implementing new programs, submit comments demanding equity provisions
- Vote with Economic Justice in Mind: Support candidates at all levels who commit to protecting the safety net and advancing equitable economic development
- Build Community Power: Join or form local coalitions focused on economic justice issues
Your Voice Matters
The Baldwin Economic Justice Report exists to empower you with information and connect you with resources for action. We want to hear from you:
- Have questions about how these policies affect you?
- Want to share your experience with healthcare access or safety net programs?
- Need guidance on how to advocate effectively?
- Ready to organize in your community?
Let's connect. Together, we can fight for an economy that works for all of us.
Conclusion
The coming months will determine whether Black communities face an economic catastrophe or secure their rightful place in America's economic future. The expiration of ACA subsidies, potential safety net cuts, and implementation of industrial policy are not separate issues—they are interconnected challenges that demand a comprehensive, coordinated response.
History shows that "race-neutral" policies default to harming Black communities. Progress requires explicit, intentional, data-driven strategies that dismantle barriers and create inclusive pathways to prosperity.
The time for action is now. The stakes could not be higher.
References
- AJMC. "5 Consequences If ACA Premium Subsidies End in 2026." The American Journal of Managed Care, 2024.
- KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation). "ACA Marketplace Premium Payments Would More Than Double on Average Next Year if Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire." October 2024.
- Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. "Understanding the ACA Subsidy Discussion." September 2024.
- Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "Five Key Changes to ACA Marketplaces Amid Uncertainty Over Premium Tax Credit Enhancements." November 2024.
- American Hospital Association. "CBO: 2.2 Million Consumers Will Lose Insurance in 2026 if ACA Enhanced Premium Subsidies Expire." December 6, 2024.
- The Guardian. "ACA/Obamacare subsidies expire amid Senate inaction." December 14, 2024.
- Acquah, Nii-Annang. "Budget Reconciliation Cuts to the Social Safety Net and Their Impact on Black Households." Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, 2024.
- Jones, Dominique D. "Shifting the Narrative on Industrial Policy: Opportunities for Genuine Economic Mobility and Good Jobs for Black Communities." Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, 2024.
- "Centering Black Households in the 2025 Tax Debate." Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, 2024.
Additional Data Sources
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. "The Employment Situation — November 2024."
- Urban Institute. "4.8 Million People Will Lose Coverage in 2026 If Enhanced Premium Tax Credits Expire."
- U.S. Census Bureau. "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2021."
- Congressional Budget Office. "Federal Subsidies for Health Insurance Coverage for People Under 65: 2024 to 2034." June 2024.
